Random Stuff - Chapter 348

Five causes we would like to investigate more deeply

Immigration reform

What it is: By “immigration reform,” we mean loosening immigration restrictions in rich countries with stronger political institutions, especially for people who are migrating from poor countries with weaker political institutions. We include both efforts to allow more high-skill immigration and efforts to allow more immigration in general. Some people to talk to in this area include Michael Clemens, Lant Pritchett, and others at the Center for Global Development. Fwd.us and the Krieble Foundation are two examples of organizations working in this area.

Why we think it is promising: Many individual workers in poor countries could produce much more economic value and better realize their potential in other ways if they lived in rich countries, meaning that much of the world’s human capital is being severely underutilized. This claim is unusually well supported by basic economic theory and the views of a large majority of economists. Many concerns have been raised, but we think the most plausible ones involve political feasibility and political and cultural consequences of migration.

Philanthropic infrastructure

What it is: By “philanthropic infrastructure,” we mean activities that expand the flexible capabilities of those trying to do good in a cause-neutral, outcome-oriented way. Some organizations in this area we are most familiar with include charity evaluator GiveWell, donation pledge organizations (Giving What We Can, The Life You Can Save, the Giving Pledge), and 80,000 Hours (an organization that provides information to help people make career choices that maximize their impact). There are many examples we are less familiar with, such as the Bridgespan Group and the Center for Effective Philanthropy. (Disclosure: Nick Beckstead is on the board of trustees for the Centre for Effective Altruism, which houses Giving What We Can, The Life You Can Save, and 80,000 Hours, though The Life You Can Save is substantially independent.)

Why we think it is promising: We are interested in this area because we want to build up resources which are flexible enough to ultimately support the causes and opportunities that are later found to be the most promising, and because we see a lot of growth in this area and think early investments may result in more money and talent available for very promising opportunities later on.

Methods for improved forecasting

What it is: Forecasting is challenging, and very high accuracy is difficult to obtain in many of the domains of greatest interest. However, a number of methods have been developed to improve forecasting accuracy through training, aggregation of opinion, incentives, and other means. Some examples include expert judgment aggregation algorithms, probability and calibration training, and prediction markets. We are excited about recent progress in this area in a prediction tournament sponsored by IARPA, which Philip Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project is currently winning.

Why we think it is promising: Improved forecasting could be useful in a wide variety of political and business contexts. Improved forecasting over a period of multiple years could improve overall preparedness for many global challenges and opportunities. Moreover, strong evidence of the superior performance of some methods of forecasting over others could help policymakers base decisions on the best available evidence. We currently have limited information about room for more funding for existing organizations in this area.