Random Stuff - Chapter 349

Global catastrophic risk

What it is: Opportunities in this area focus on identifying and mitigating specific threats of human extinction, such as large asteroid impact and tail risks of climate change and nuclear winter. Examples of interventions in this category include tracking asteroids (which has largely been completed for asteroids that threaten civilization, though not for comets), improving resilience of the food supply through cellulose-to-food conversion, disease surveillance (for natural or man-made pandemics), advocacy for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and research on other possible risks and methods for mitigating them. An unusual view we take seriously is that some of the most significant risks in this area will come from new technologies that may emerge this century, such as advanced artificial intelligence and advanced biological weapons. (We also believe technologies of this type have massive upside potential which must be thought about carefully as we think about the risks.) Notable defenders of views in this vicinity include Martin Rees, Richard Posner, and Nick Bostrom. (Disclosure: Nick Bostrom is the Director at the Future of Humanity Institute, where Nick Beckstead is a research fellow and Carl Shulman is a research associate.)

Why we think it is promising: Progress in this area has a clear relationship with long-run outcomes for humanity. There have been some very good buys in this area in the past, such as early asteroid tracking programs. Apart from climate change, total foundation spending in this area is around 0.1%, and little of that carefully distinguishes between large catastrophes and catastrophes with the potential to significant change long-run outcomes for humanity.

Meta-research

What it is: We will make use of GiveWell’s explanation of the cause area here and here.

Why we think it is promising: We believe that many improvements in meta-research can accelerate scientific progress and make it easier for non-experts to discern what is known in a field. We believe this is likely to systematically improve our ability to navigate global challenges and opportunities. From a long-term perspective the importance of different impacts of meta-research diverges from a short-term analysis because, e.g. the degree to which policymakers can understand the state of scientific knowledge at any given level of progress looms larger in comparison to simple acceleration of progress.