Rebirth capital madman - Chapter 1221

Obviously, the financial elites who can squeeze into the circle of the Xiangjiang Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit, regardless of their professional level, at least they are not stupid. It started to burst. This year, the real estate bubble began to burst. What awaits you next is a decade of economic loss, a lost 20 years, and a lost 30 years… Furthermore, you can’t grasp it as quickly as Gao Xian The essence of the crisis is a credit bubble.

There may be a question, can’t it be random, and one book can’t save itself?

The answer is that it is really the general trend.

The key point is that the inertia of this luxury car caught up by Mi Guo is too great. Mi Guo has been directing beside him. As for the next historical trajectory in the “old script”. Including the banking crisis, quantitative easing and zero interest rates, super quantitative easing and negative interest rates, the ratio of one debt to one chicken fart is the highest in the world, exceeding 250%, the collapse of the yen exchange rate during the mask period and one The flash collapse of the national debt… etc., can be called “fate”.

It’s as if the United States has “locked” the upper limit of its economic development!

In Gao Xian’s view, since the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, when the yen appreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar, the level of monetary policy of a central bank has been significantly worse than before the signing of the Plaza Accord.

For example, in 1986 and 1987, after a central bank slashed the base interest rate from 5% to 2.5%, bad signs of an economic bubble appeared. It came out, but after two years of procrastination, the economic bubble can only be described as crazy, and the adjustment of the central bank was long overdue, and it still slammed on the brakes.

As far as Gao Xian knows, there are three main factors that cause the lag of monetary policy:

First of all, for its own benefit, the United States does not allow any adjustments;

Secondly, the global stock market crash broke out on Black Monday in 1987. I don’t know if a central bank was really scared. Anyway, it has a legitimate reason to continue to maintain low interest rates and stimulate market recovery.

In addition, there is an infighting between a central bank and a Ministry of Finance, which is equivalent to the more commonly known Ministry of Finance.

Just like the Bank of England was nationalized by the British government after the Second World War, and the British government is on the Bank of England, the mother-in-law on the central bank is the Ministry of Finance. The Ministry of Finance instinctively resisted the resulting loss of power, so the intrigue between the two was unavoidable, and it is not surprising that it finally affected the extremely sophisticated financial regulation work.

In this kind of mistake, the factors that lead to the “credit bubble” pointed out by Gao Xian are becoming bigger and bigger, which can be described as a ring.

In 1988, a new accounting standard was introduced, that is, the appreciation of the stocks held by banks can be included in the profits of the year, which is much more serious than the public funds that can be reimbursed for playing golf.

You know, in the current period, a bank is basically the core of various consortiums. The stocks held by companies in the consortium system have gone to sea, and the appreciation of the stock can be included in the profit of the year. Exhausted all means to promote the stock market for all.

On the other hand, the interest rate is low and the yen is high. If a company needs a loan, there is a more cost-effective financing method than borrowing from a bank. Just ask an investment bank to issue corporate bonds.

So, in order to release the loans in their hands, the already hot-headed banks have targeted companies and individuals with low credit ratings and poor repayment capabilities.

It’s not terrible to speculate in stocks with a bubble; it’s not terrible to speculate in stocks with borrowed money, it’s nothing more than leverage operation; but if you can’t pay back the money, it’s scary to speculate in stocks with borrowed money!

Of course, Gao Xian pointed out that the horror of the “credit bubble” that Japan is currently facing is just a macro situation, and there is no need for further compassion. The level is high.

As President Gao elaborated and analyzed his views on the “credit bubble”, the financial elites also savored, understood, and nodded. To the first benefit.

The “credit bubble” has burst, and the book will definitely have to “repay its debts” for this, and the subsequent deflation is completely predictable.

In fact, generally speaking, moderate and mild inflation has a positive effect on economic development and improving chicken farts.

The logic here is not difficult to understand. The money in hand depreciates slowly, so it will naturally be spent and consumed, which in turn promotes economic development.

To put it bluntly, under certain conditions, inflation is like a whip, driving people in the consumption era to keep moving forward.

Ever since. Relevant state departments are also open and generous, publishing the CPI data, which measures inflation, every month. As long as the increase does not exceed 3%, it can declare that the economic situation is very good.

Conversely, deflation has occurred, and the money in hand is afraid to spend. Gradually, the circulation of goods in the economic system slows down, and it loses its vitality, and the economy deteriorates accordingly.

In the “old script”, the first “lost decade” of the economy, we can use a specific data to understand perceptually what is called the “lost decade”.

That is, even in the first two years of the 21st century, IBen’s chicken farts are still similar to those before the economic bubble burst ten years ago.

The first advantage of high strings is to live on this basis.

Next, a central bank will definitely provide a large amount of liquidity to solve the banking crisis, and a domestic economic growth is weak. Therefore, for the positions in everyone’s hands, it is better to get a copy outside and find opportunities to make a fortune together.

This suggestion reflects Gao Xian’s goal of increasing the diversity and growth of his funding sources, and also indicates that he will build new financial techniques around the Japanese yen and Japanese government bonds.

The converging trading financial skill that is about to “expire” has been shared. Naturally, Gao Xian needs to add new secret financial skills.

How about President Gao’s personal charm?

After the forum ended, some financial institutions including Nomura Securities began to talk to Gao Yi, and there was a conclusion.

Pu Weishi, who noticed this phenomenon, was about to drool, and his position was tight, but look at President Gao, there are oils in the crevices of his fingers!