Rebirth of the Industrial Tycoon - Vol 2 Chapter 513
Chapter 513 God prediction!
In July, people all over the country celebrated the return of Hong Kong Island. Before the twelve o’clock ringing, many Chinese people stood by the television, looking forward to that historic moment.
Staying up late hurts the body. On the morning of July 1, many office workers were late.
It is precisely because they have just stayed up overnight. On the night of July 2nd, those who stayed up last night chose to go to bed early.
Situ Jian is the same.
Ordinarily, with Situ Jian’s age, sleep should be reduced, but last night was really exciting, even after the TV broadcast, Situ Jian recalled the scene when the national flag was raised, still full of excitement, lying on the bed for two or three. Haven’t fallen asleep for hours.
As a result, by the day of the next day, Situ Jian became a useless dog, dozing off all day.
Finally staying up to the evening, Situ Jian yawned and went to bed after dinner, and soon fell asleep.
Until the phone rang, Situ Jian was awakened from sleep.
Situ Jian looked at his watch, and it was five minutes before six o’clock in the morning.
Although he has slept for more than ten hours, he still hasn’t slept enough. He got up and walked to the phone and picked up the receiver.
“Academician Situ, just twenty-five minutes ago, the Bank of Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system!” The person on the phone said eagerly.
Hearing this news, Situ Jian was awakened abruptly, and the breath of getting up instantly disappeared without a trace.
“Twenty-five minutes ago, it was five thirty, and the local time in Thailand was four thirty!” Situ Jian instantly realized that the form of Thailand had really reached a precarious point.
Under normal circumstances, how can a country’s central bank announce a new monetary policy at 4:30 in the morning? Can’t you wait until daylight?
The central bank of Thailand did this, obviously it can’t wait for a few hours!
Situ Jian quickly estimated that 4:30 in Thailand time is basically a gap period for foreign exchange transactions.
There are foreign exchange markets in every country in the world, so in theory the foreign exchange market is open 24 hours a day.
For example, the foreign exchange market in Moscow is closed and the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt is still operating. At this time, you can switch to the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt; the foreign exchange market in Frankfurt is closed and the foreign exchange market in London is still open. At this time, you can switch to London; wait for London to close. Then, the foreign exchange market in New York opened again, and so on.
But in actual operation, the foreign exchange market is not always active for 24 hours, and there are always some time periods in the middle.
If China’s time is used as the calculation standard, the regular time during the day is the period when the Asian foreign exchange market is open, and in the afternoon in China, the foreign exchange markets in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are open one after another.
China closed, and the foreign exchange market in Western Europe opened again. In the evening in China, the foreign exchange markets in Western Europe are trading, while the United States is ready to open.
In the early hours of the next morning in China, the US was also closed. From the time when the US market was closed to the opening of the Japanese market, when the sun swept across the Pacific, there was no major foreign exchange market in operation, which was the period of foreign exchange trading.
The Bank of Thailand chose to announce a new monetary policy at 4:30 in the morning, which shows that it is stuck at the threshold of this foreign exchange trading gap.
Specially selected this foreign exchange gap to announce a new monetary policy. It also means that in the US foreign exchange market that has just been closed, the Bank of Thailand has already emptied the last bullet, and they can’t wait for the opening of Tokyo.
“Finally, we have given up the fixed exchange rate. What should come is always coming, but the actual situation in Thailand is much worse than I thought. It seems that we have to hold another seminar.” Situ Jian exclaimed.
Thinking of the seminar, Situ Jian suddenly remembered that at the seminar a few days ago, Li Weidong predicted that Thailand should abandon its fixed exchange rate on July 2 or 3, and today is July 2.
“It really made Li Weidong right!” Situ Jian was immediately surprised.
“It’s nothing more than predicting Thailand’s abandonment of the solid exchange rate, but even the date can be accurately predicted, which is a bit outrageous!”
…
For the second seminar, people who arrived early were in small groups and talked quietly.
“Thailand gave up its fixed exchange rate on July 2nd, and it was really hit by that Li Weidong!”
“Even the detailed date was estimated, which is amazing!”
“Yes, when he said on July 2 or 3, I also think he was completely nonsense. Now it seems that this is a God’s prediction!”
“I think this Li Weidong is not simple, his financial accomplishments are unfathomable!”
“It is certainly not an ordinary person to be able to make a company so big.”
At this time, Li Weidong walked in from outside.
“Chairman Li, here comes!”
“Chairman Li, your position is here!”
“Pour Chairman Li some tea!”
This time, as soon as Li Weidong walked into the meeting room, he was immediately treated like a star.
The reason is naturally that Li Weidong successfully predicted when Thailand will abandon its fixed exchange rate.
Economic forecasts have always been a fascinating thing.
For economists, a lifetime of research is not as good as an accurate forecast. Many well-known economists have only one accurate forecast in a lifetime, and they will be respected by the world.
Those who thought that Li Weidong’s predictions were nonsense before, have also put away their contempt, regardless of whether Li Weidong’s prediction has a scientific basis, since the prediction is accurate, then the winner is king.
As soon as Li Weidong sat down with his front feet, a middle-aged man in his forties approached him.
This person Li Weidong doesn’t know him, so he should not be the economist who participated in the discussion.
I only heard this person introduce himself; “Chairman Li, my name is Zhao Jinshan, I do some financial investment business on Hong Kong Island.”
Li Weidong was taken aback for a moment, and he secretly suggested that people who are doing financial investment on Hong Kong Island would get involved in this meeting today.
However, this person’s accent was an authentic Beijing accent, so Li Weidong asked, “Boss Zhao, you should be from Beijing, right?”
“Yes, I was born in Beijing and grew up in a compound. I only went to Hong Kong Island in the last two years.” Zhao Jinshan replied.
Li Weidong heard the words “grow in the compound” and guessed the identity of Zhao Jinshan.
At that time, a capitalist could go to Hong Kong Island to do business, and he was still doing finance. This must be a top-notch student. Judging from Zhao Jinshan’s age, the elders in his family may not have retired yet.
Just listen to Zhao Jinshan continuing to say; “When the seminar was held last time, I also came to listen. At that time, you said that on July 2 or 3, Thailand would abandon the fixed exchange rate. I think what you said makes sense. There have been several transactions in the foreign exchange market.
The result is really as you said, Thailand gave up the fixed exchange rate on July 2nd, and I made a fortune. I came here today, one is to thank Chairman Li, and the other is to ask Chairman Li to continue to give advice. ”
“I met an international financial speculator!” Li Weidong said with a smile.
“What kind of international financial speculator I am, I just follow those financial crocodiles and eat some leftovers. The key is to give advice from an expert like you.” Zhao Jinshan laughed.
“Boss Zhao is polite, I’m not an expert, I just make some judgments based on the current situation.” Li Weidong replied.
“Then Chairman Li thinks, what kind of situation will Thailand look like next?” Zhao Jinshan asked immediately.
“The devaluation of the Thai baht has just begun. In the next month, if you follow those financial predators, you will definitely not suffer. When the Thai baht collapses completely and Thailand is unprofitable, those financial predators will turn to war. Other battlefields.” Li Weidong replied.
“Where is the other battlefield?” Zhao Jinshan asked again.
Li Weidong thought for a while and replied: “I think the next target of international financial speculators is Malaysia. Malaysia’s interest rate is also very high. Their ringgit is currently a fixed exchange rate system. In addition, Hong Kong Island will also become an international financial speculator. The target of the attack.
However, Hong Kong Island has abundant foreign exchange reserves and not much foreign debt. The financial system is more mature and the financial structure is relatively healthy, which can withstand the first wave of attacks by international financial speculators. If international financial speculators attack Hong Kong Island, they will inevitably suffer losses. Then you should not follow up. ”
“My financial investment company is located on Hong Kong Island, so there is no reason to attack yourself! If international financial speculators dare to come, I will definitely support Hong Kong Island!”
Zhao Jinshan paused, and then asked; “Will the Indonesian and the Philippines also be attacked by international financial speculators?”
“Of course it will!” Li Weidong nodded, and then said: “It’s just that Indonesia and the Philippines are too poor. Attacking the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso, even if it succeeds, will have relatively limited profits. It is far better than attacking the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit. It’s a good deal.”
Zhao Jinshan nodded suddenly: “It makes sense. The bandits who occupied the mountain as king in the past also robbed the rich. The poor peasants who had no money could not grab anything.”
“So look farther, don’t stare at the poor people like Indonesia and the Philippines, but look at the rich countries.” Li Weidong replied with a smile.
“A rich country? You mean Japan? International financial speculators will also attack Japan? This is unlikely! Japan is the world’s second economy!” Zhao Jinshan said.
“I’m not talking about Japan, but South Korea.” Li Weidong laughed, and then said; “This topic will be more troublesome to explain, so let’s have a meeting first. If I have the opportunity, I will explain in detail at the seminar.”
…
A moment later, Situ Jian came to the meeting room, beside him was a well-mannered middle-aged man.
Only listen to Situ Jian’s introduction: “The superiors are also very concerned about our seminar. X Office also sent Secretary Chen to participate in this seminar. Welcome!”
After a round of applause, the gentleman said; “Teachers, I will make a long story short. Our leaders attached great importance to today’s seminar and were very interested in the content of the seminar.
But due to busy work, the leader could not be there in person to discuss with the teachers, so he sent me here to participate in this seminar.
Before leaving, the leader asked me to bring three questions. I hope these three questions can participate in this seminar. ”
Secretary Chen said, opened his portable notebook, and said, “The first question is the impact that Thailand’s abandonment of a fixed exchange rate will have on Thailand’s economy.
The second question is whether Thailand’s abandonment of the fixed exchange rate will affect the economy of Hong Kong Island, and if it does, the impact will be great; the third question is whether Thailand’s abandonment of the fixed exchange rate will have a knock-on effect. To Asia and the world.
The leader’s instruction is that there is no right or wrong point of view. There is no need to discuss the correct answers to these three questions, but the leader wants to hear analysis and views from different perspectives. So I hope that all teachers will express their opinions. ”
Secretary Chen said, closed the notebook, and then retreated to his seat.
Situ Jian said: “The three questions that Secretary Chen brought up, you all have heard clearly! Then the content of our meeting today is mainly to discuss these three issues.”
Situ Jian said, looking at everyone, and finally fixed his eyes on Li Weidong: “Chairman Li, at the last meeting, you successfully predicted the time when Thailand will give up the fixed exchange rate. Let me say a few words today!”
Everyone immediately cast envy eyes on Li Weidong.
The first speech is obviously beneficial. This is probably like a speech contest. The person who appears first, no matter how well they speak, will definitely be remembered by the judges.
Also, in this kind of seminar, the same point of view will inevitably appear. At this time, the person who put forward the point first will take the lead, and the expert who speaks the same point later will become the accuser.
For example, when everyone tastes an apple, Li Weidong is the first to express his opinion, saying that the apple is very sweet, and then the person who also says that the apple is sweet becomes echoing Li Weidong’s statement.
The secretary Chen would also say when reporting to the leadership that Li Weidong’s point of view is that apples are very sweet, and there are people like Zhang San Li and four passers-by Jiasha Monk and others who agree with this point of view.
And what the leader can remember at this time is definitely Li Weidong who put forward the point of view, not the monk Sha who is full of “big brother said right” behind him.
So the first person to speak, no matter what he said is right or wrong, he will definitely be able to show his face in front of the leader.
If the person’s point of view happens to be correct, it is not just about showing up in front of the leader.
There are so many economic experts in the conference room, and many of them are highly qualified. If it is normal, it will definitely not be the first time for Li Weidong to speak.
But in the last seminar, Li Weidong successfully predicted the time when Thailand would give up the fixed exchange rate, which became an absolute plus point. Let Li Weidong be the first to speak, and no one else can fault it.
Li Weidong certainly knows the importance of the first speech. He did not decline, but said: “Since Academician Situ is calling, I will show my ugliness and say my humble opinion. I hope that teachers will correct me if I say something wrong!”
After he was humble, Li Weidong cleared his throat and said: “I’ll talk about the results of my judgment first. I think Thailand’s abandonment of a fixed exchange rate is a fuse. This fuse will detonate and spread to the entire Asia-Pacific. The Asian financial crisis in the region!”
The words “Asian Financial Crisis”, Li Weidong said very clearly.
Hearing these words, there was an uproar at the scene!
Almost everyone thinks that Li Weidong is talking nonsense again!
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(End of this chapter)